Amidst a world affected by complex difficulties ranging from the lengthy conflict in Ukraine to the ongoing tensions in Gaza, the global scene is set for critical political contests in three of the world’s leading democracies. The United States, India, Russia are on the verge of holding national-level elections that have the potential to drastically alter the structure of global geopolitics, the foundations of economic stability, and the complicated web of international alliances. These elections stand out as crucial events because they occur against rising global crises and altering power dynamics, highlighting their ability to influence domestic policy landscapes inside these countries and redefine their roles and connections in the world arena.
United States
As the United States approaches the November 2024 election, many expect it to be one of the most significant in its history. This election comes at a turning point, with the country embroiled in profound debates about its future, confronting pivotal issues such as economic disparity, the quest for racial justice, the imperative of healthcare reform, and the complexities of an evolving international arena—all heightened by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and strategic contention with China. Democrats strongly support Joe Biden for re-election, emphasising the administration’s successes and plans. The Democratic narrative emphasises a reinvigoration of alliances, a vigorous stance on environmental action, and a push towards a more equitable economic resurgence in the post-pandemic landscape.
Conversely, the Republican camp is all but set to declare Donald Trump as their possible challenger. With all but one candidate for the Republican primary stepping down, it is setting the stage for a potential rematch of 2020. Despite being mired in a flurry of legal troubles, Trump seems confident about winning. Trump’s “America First” ethos to proponents of classical conservative principles like fiscal prudence, robust national defence, and restrained government. The Biden administration’s handling of the Ukraine war, the Middle East crisis and illegal migration down the USA’s southern border has only emboldened the republican position. A Trump-led White House might send Jitters down America’s Western partners because many of their security and economic policies are intertwined with the US position.
The electorate’s mood in the lead-up to the 2024 election is significantly shaped by the nation’s navigation of the COVID-19 pandemic, the trajectory of economic recovery, and the US’s stature on the global stage—particularly its support for Ukraine in the face of Russian hostility and its handling of the ascent of authoritarian regimes. Moreover, this election is poised to act as a referendum on America’s healthcare direction, stirring debates over the future of the Affordable Care Act, the proposition of Medicare for All, or alternative healthcare reforms. The American public faces a defining choice that will not only sculpt the domestic future but also reverberate through the corridors of global geopolitics, influence international commerce, and impact collective endeavours to navigate global crises.
India
As we look closely into India, our next-door neighbour will head to elections soon. Being the largest democracy in the world with over 900 million voters, the Indian democracy is a model for developing countries worldwide to follow, with most polls showing Narendra Modi on the path to winning his third consecutive term in office. The Ram Mandir consecration in Ayodhya has given the BJP a clear edge over its opponents. The opposition block, INDIA, faces much internal conflict within its ranks. Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently said he showed confidence in winning over 370 seats, with his alliance winning over 400. From the Economic standpoint, Modi speaks confidently about becoming the world’s third-largest economy within this term. India has always been a significant player in this region, and whatever policies the new Indian government undertakes will be closely followed by its neighbours as they have regional and global significance.
Russia
In the sprawling expanse of Russia, a sense of inevitability shrouds the upcoming 2024 presidential election. At the heart of this narrative is President Vladimir Putin, whose tenure has significantly reshaped the nation’s political and global standing. With constitutional amendments passed in 2020, Putin’s potential to extend his leadership until 2036 signifies a continuation of the Kremlin’s firm hold over Russian politics, stirring debates about the electoral process’s integrity. Putin’s reign has been marked by a focus on reinforcing national sovereignty and stabilising the economy, albeit with varied success. His popularity, bolstered by state media, presents him as the architect of Russia’s post-1990s resurgence. Yet, beneath this veneer of stability, Russia confronts challenges, including economic sanctions tied to geopolitical manoeuvres and a demographic downturn, alongside a burgeoning opposition movement clamouring for change despite facing severe repression.
The election landscape is complex, with opposition figures like Alexei Navalny enduring imprisonment and risks for defying the Kremlin’s authority. These dynamics underscore a broader struggle for political plurality in the face of a crackdown on dissent. As Russia stands on the precipice of another election, the global community watches closely. Putin’s continued rule likely means more of the same foreign policy assertiveness and strategic contests with the West. Yet, however slim, the possibility of a political shift could herald changes in Russia’s domestic and international approach. This election, predictable to some, remains a pivotal chapter in Russia’s story, with implications that resonate beyond its borders, influencing global politics and the balance of power in an ever-evolving international landscape.
Impacts and Interplay on the Global Stage
The outcomes of these elections will have far-reaching effects on international politics. A change in leadership or policy in any of these countries could shift alliances, impact global markets, and alter the international response to crises like the war in Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in Gaza. For instance, the US and UK elections could influence NATO’s stance on Ukraine.
In contrast, India’s election might affect its role in the Quad, impacting the geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. A Trump-led white house might mean a more conservative economic and foreign policy, which led the US to shift more factories from the global south to the continental United States.
Economic policies stemming from these elections will influence international trade and investment flows, particularly as the world seeks to recover from the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Environmental policies, especially commitments to the Paris Agreement, will also be crucial, with potential shifts in the USA’s climate strategies impacting global efforts to combat climate change. As these democracies approach their elections, the world watches closely. The decisions made by the US, India, and Russia electorate will shape their national destinies and the future of international relations, economic stability, and global peace. As such, these electoral showdowns reflect the broader challenges and opportunities facing the worldwide community of the 21st century.
Author: Hosen Ankur Andalib
