Recessions can be hard on people, as well as businesses around the globe. If we look back at the covid-19 pandemic period, when people piled up toiletries at home in fear of supply shortage, we did not only look at the general people suffering, but the businesses as well that could not operate. Due to the Russia-Ukraine war and a few other factors, we may see another recession period in the near future. However, a significant difference between this recession from the past ones would be people will still be going out, but to what end?

One common problem that people face in times of recession is unemployment. The increasing prices of supplies and other additional costs make it tough for a lot of businesses to hold on to the business model. As they desperately try to survive by increasing prices, the sales figures drop as well as people in general also lack their purchasing power due to economic disturbance.
However, looking at some market insights and past records, there are some industries that have a higher chance of survival and would most likely be least affected throughout the recession period. Interestingly, these industries were almost never deeply affected by their regular market from their inception. Even in a period of recession when the economic condition of most parts of the world may shrink, these industries are most likely to stay stable or may even boom in a few cases.

Pharma/ Healthcare Industry
The pharma healthcare industry and its commercial value have always been rising as population density increases around the globe. During the period of the pandemic, pharma services in the US have achieved a market growth of 2%, and the healthcare technology sector has received a growth of 5%, while other businesses had a tough time surviving with minimum profitability. According to Tom McKinsey and Co, the healthcare and pharma industry is projected to have a growth of 6% per annum, which is almost inevitable due to economic factors. Even though people from all classes tend to cut costs during a recession, medical charges generally do not go neglected. People purchase the medicines required and take necessary medical measures just as in normal times, even if the medical charges hike in a period of recession. Thus, the pharma and healthcare industries are less likely to get affected during a period of recession.

Local Agro-industry
The global agro-industry is to face tough consequences due to the Russia- Ukraine war. There have been severe restrictions on agro-product exports for both countries. In a period of recession, the restrictions may lead to more increases in price for crops such as wheat, sunflower oil, and many other products may have an increase in price due to chain reaction. However, the local agro-industry of Bangladesh may have hope of light and stability. The local production of crops should not be harmed during a recession. As different crops are basic necessities, people will still be demanding wheat, rice, and other essential crops to a much similar extent despite the price hikes. However, the distribution of profit among stakeholders in the industry is yet to be discovered upon the implementation of government regulations.
Md. Alvi Rahman, a co-founder of WeGro, an agri-tech startup, said, “Blue-collar employees who lose their jobs in the recession period can be guided with advisory services and resources to impact the local agro-industry. Through systematic management and forecasts, it is possible to utilize the large force to meet the local demands of agro products and export certain goods. The local agro-industry can be secured in such times with the right measures.” Hence, with the conscience of farmers and the impact of agri-tech startups, it will be possible to prosper the local agro-industry despite a recession.

Education Industry
The education industry around the globe is less likely to be negatively affected by a recession. Even during the covid-19 pandemic period, people who were pursuing a degree continued to do so by switching to virtual or hybrid mode. Moreover, the e-learning industry had a boom during the period of recession as people were more interested to learn digital skills than ever. As the digital age is changing and learning a skill is now easier and more interactive than ever, the scope of learning is now available for people in root areas as well with the help of the internet. In an economic downturn, mass people would still have the drive to improve themselves through the lights of academic and non-academic education. The commercialization scenario of the education industry may change in the future, but that would be due to the rise of ed-tech startups. However, a recession would unlikely have an effect on the education industry.

Luxury Industry
The recession mostly affects the purchasing behavior of lower to upper-middle-class consumers. The purchasing behavior often tends to remain the same for upper-class consumers. Hence, the luxury industry did not experience a downturn in sales during the covid-19 period. Although retail sales were affected for luxury beauty brands during the covid-19 period, online sales had a massive hike. This was due to restrictions on the physical footfall at shops. Sales of high-tier targeting brands such as Gucci and Zara remained stable during the past economic recessions. This indicates stable upper-class consumer behavior in periods of recession. However, in a future recession period, luxury beauty brands that target high-tier customers may not face a huge drop in sales. However, brands that target middle-class to upper-middle-class customers may face huge drops in sales as such products would not be a priority for mass people in the dire strait of the economy.

Author- Md. Rafi Rahman