On June 23rd, the world woke to an unexpected tweet. Donald Trump, the self-styled dealmaker-in-chief, had declared the end of a war most didn’t even realise had truly begun. After 12 frenetic days of missile strikes, assassinations, and fiery rhetoric between Iran and Israel, with the United States stepping in like a heavyweight referee who throws a punch of his own, a ceasefire was announced. It was as chaotic as it was sudden. Yet for all its drama, this was no clear victory lap for anyone. The so-called “12-day war” has left a crater far beyond the Iranian soil or Israeli airbases, and it has reshuffled the chessboard of the Middle East, reignited old fears, and exposed the paradoxes of modern American strategy.
To grasp the stakes, one must understand that this wasn’t a spontaneous outburst. The Israel-Iran rivalry has been simmering for decades. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has cast itself as the ideological antithesis to the Jewish state, supporting proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel, in turn, has waged a long campaign of sabotage, cyberattacks, and assassinations to slow down Iran’s nuclear ambitions. What had long been a clandestine shadow war finally broke into the open.
The spark came on June 13th with Israel launching an unprecedented attack on Iran’s nuclear and military targets, with explosions reported across the country, including in Tehran, Natanz, Tabriz, and Kermanshah. The Israeli strike targeted key nuclear infrastructure, an escalation following months of regional clashes from Gaza to Syria and the breakdown of nuclear negotiations in Oman. The exchange of fire comes as talks on Iran’s nuclear program in Oman between the U.S. and Iran were called off. Israel argued it had no choice: Iran was allegedly racing toward the bomb under the cover of arms talks. The assault was comprehensive and devastating. IAF fighter jets struck the Iranian regime’s uranium enrichment site in the Natanz area overnight. This is the largest uranium enrichment site in Iran. But the strikes didn’t stop there. Israel announced it had struck the Arak reactor on June 19, destroying the heavy water facility that could potentially produce plutonium for weapons.
The scope of the damage became clearer through satellite imagery. The site was visibly blackened by the degree of rubble thrown up by the strikes at the Isfahan nuclear technology centre. Israeli and US airstrikes damaged the nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, though recent assessments suggest the destruction wasn’t as complete as initially claimed. New U.S. assessment finds American strikes destroyed only one of three Iranian nuclear sites. But the move forced America’s hand. Within days, U.S. aircraft joined in, targeting Iran’s nuclear sites with bunker-busting bombs. Unlike in the past, when America would lead from the front, Trump preferred to play both power broker and firebrand at once. Israel achieved tangible military successes. Its air force inflicted serious damage on Iran’s missile and nuclear programs. The attacks killed key Iranian nuclear scientists and military leaders, including the head of the IRGC. Yet the war also exposed its limits. Israel’s air campaign was unsustainable; at its peak, it launched over 100 missions a day. Maintaining such intensity for even a month would cost around 20% of Israel’s GDP. But Iran wasn’t defenceless. During the 12-day conflict, Iran repeatedly struck back at Israel, causing extensive damage to major cities like Tel Aviv and killing 28 people. The Iranian response shattered any illusion of an easy victory.
The human cost was significant on both sides. The Israeli attacks reportedly displaced thousands of Iranian civilians, while Iranian counter-strikes affected Israeli cities in ways the country hadn’t experienced since the Second Intifada. Meanwhile, Iran was battered but not broken. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly handed power to a crisis council dominated by the IRGC. That spells more militarisation, not less. From their point of view, the regime in Tehran now faces a credible threat of more airstrikes if Israel and the United States believe it is trying to revive clandestine nuclear work. Trump, for his part, got his headlines. Trump says it was a ‘great honour’ to ‘destroy’ Iran’s nuclear facilities and then stop the war launched by Israel. No American troops died, and he could claim to have punished Iran without the quagmire of a full-scale war. But the victory is shallow. Iran may reduce cooperation with the UN’s nuclear watchdog. It may rebuild in secret, diversifying its deterrent strategy.
The end came as suddenly as the war had escalated. President Trump announced a ceasefire after Iran launched an attack at a US base in Qatar Monday, which it had warned of in advance. The announcement itself was vintage Trump—bold, premature, and controversial. Mr. Trump said Monday night that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE,” a move he said would end the 12-day conflict between the two countries. But the ceasefire’s implementation was far from smooth. Iran would halt strikes against Israel from midnight Eastern Time, and Israel was to stop striking Iran 12 hours after that, from noon ET on Tuesday. The staggered timing created a window of chaos. Israel and Iran traded missile strikes Tuesday, accusing one another of breaking the ceasefire, before each side recommitted to it. Iran’s initial response was sceptical. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there was currently no ceasefire agreement with Israel, but said Iran would halt its military response if Israel stopped its strikes on Iran by 4 a.m. local time. A ceasefire between Iran and Israel appears to be holding on Wednesday, despite both sides accusing the other of violating the truce in the hours immediately after it was announced.
Gulf states—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar—have long feared Iran but are equally terrified of destabilising wars. For years, they quietly backed Israeli strength as a regional bulwark. But this war, triggered largely by Israeli impatience and American indulgence, has shaken their faith. The proximity of the conflict to major commercial hubs sent shockwaves through international business confidence in the region. Normalisation with Israel, once heralded by the Abraham Accords, is no longer a guaranteed path. Saudi Arabia, the biggest potential domino, now sees the cost more clearly. Why embrace a nation that could drag the region into another war? The 12-day conflict has provided a preview that regional integration with Israel might actually entail not just economic benefits, but potential entanglement in existential conflicts. The war also exposed the limits of American security guarantees. This has implications for how these nations view their own security arrangements with the United States.
The tragedy is that diplomacy remains the only long-term solution. But no one seems ready for it. Iran, still clinging to revolutionary ideology and deeply humiliated, is unlikely to accept the kind of humiliating terms Washington may demand. Trump wants a zero-enrichment deal—Iran wants its sovereign right to nuclear energy. Neither side trusts the other. The collapse of the Oman talks just before the war began showed the fragility of the diplomatic process. Years of sanctions, assassinations, and sabotage have created layers of mistrust that cannot be easily overcome. Iran’s nuclear program, while damaged, represents decades of investment and national pride. The regime views it as essential to its survival and regional influence. The danger for Netanyahu is that a weakened but paranoid regime is more likely to double down than give up. The domestic pressure on Netanyahu has also intensified. The families of hostages and the broader Israeli public are questioning why the same decisive action taken against Iran cannot be applied to resolve the ongoing Gaza conflict.
The war has also demonstrated the limitations of military solutions to political problems. While Israel achieved tactical successes, the fundamental drivers of the conflict—Iran’s regional ambitions, Israel’s security concerns, and America’s desire for Middle East stability—remain unchanged. Trump called it a victory. ‘This is a war that could have gone on for years,’ US President Donald Trump says. Netanyahu claimed Israel is now among the world’s great powers. Iran held parades for a victory it clearly didn’t win. But the truth is simpler: this was a pause, not a peace. The more likely path is murkier. Iran rebuilds, likely with greater secrecy and dispersion of its nuclear infrastructure. Israel remains vigilant, preparing for the next round. America loses interest as domestic priorities take precedence. The fundamental issues that drove this conflict remain unresolved. The conflict highlighted the growing fragmentation of the international system in addressing regional crises.
In a region where old wars rarely end and new ones always loom, the question isn’t whether the 12-day war mattered. It’s whether we can prevent the next one from lasting much longer or becoming something far worse.
Author: Anika Tasnim
